NIGERIA CONFLICT PROFILE AND MAJOR INCIDENCE

January 5, 2019
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Category: Latest News, Occasional Papers

Institutional and Sustainable Development Foundation

Research by: Ogwu Paul Okwuchukwu

Edited by: Maife Lincoln Owolabi

© December 2018

About ISDF

Institutional and Sustainable Development Foundation was found based on the growing role of strong institutions in ensuring the growth and development of a country. Africa and most countries of developing nations lack strong institutions to support the social and physical infrastructures development.

http://isdfoundation.org.ng

CONTENT

1. Nigeria Security Profile and major indexes

2. Socio-economic drivers of conflict, instability, and resilience

3. Socio-cultural drivers of conflict, instability, and resilience

4. Political drivers of conflict

5. Environmental drivers of conflict

6. Boko Haram conflict

7. Niger Delta conflict

8. Middle-belt conflict

9. Major Communal Conflict

10. Recommendation

11. Conclusion

NIGERIA – Territory and political regions

Nigeria is a Federal Republic made up of thirty-six states and a federal capital territory Abuja, It has 774 local government areas, and some 9,572 political wards (Federal Republic of Nigeria, 2017). The states are grouped according to its six geopolitical regions – north-west, north-central, north-east, south-east, south-west, and south-south. Nigeria is located in West Africa, bordering Niger to the north, Chad to the northeast, Cameroon in the east and southeast, Benin in the west, and the Gulf of Guinea in the south. Nigeria is made up of several ethnic groups, majority of which are the Igbo, Hausa and the Yoruba. Within these ethnic groups are several tribes numbering 371. Nigeria is also noted to have around 500 distinct languages and dialects. Nigeria is the biggest economy in Africa, the third largest military power and the biggest oil producer in Africa and 10^th oil producer in the world. The Population of Nigeria is estimated to be 203,452,505 (July 2018 est.) It is almost evenly spread religious groups of Muslim 51.6%, Roman Catholic 11.2%, other Christian 35.7%, traditionalist .9%, unspecified .5% (2013 est.)

As the largest military power in the region, Nigeria played a central role in the ECOWAS effort to end the civil wars in Liberia and Sierra Leone. ECOWAS headquarters is based in Abuja, Nigeria. Its diversity is also major source of suspicion, disunity and conflict.

This paper analyses the structural challenges, root causes and dynamics of conflict, instability and resilience in Nigeria. Before and after independence Nigeria has been characterized by series of conflict which has threatened the peace and stability of the country. These conflicts of high and low intensity are one of the factors that prevented the country from achieving a sustainable growth and development. The causes of conflicts in Nigeria vary from the pre-independent inheritance and post independent forces within and outside the country. Some of the causes of conflicts include the following; Amalgamation, Tribalism, Favoritism, corruption and inept leadership, Resource control, Marginalization of some ethnic groups, constitutional reform, Religious intolerance, introduction of sharia legal system, Herdsman Attack, Disputes over ownership of land, military inclusion in politics and lack of vision.

The history of Nigerian state has been characterized by turbulent, contentious and often violent politics and religious conflicts. However, the most lethal conflict in Nigeria is the civil war. Nigeria unity was deeply tested with the civil war from 1967 to 1970 that cost over 3 million lives. The Boko Haram conflict in the north-east is now almost a decade old, and continues to destabilize the northeast populations, to be a drain on state security forces, state finances, and to increase food insecurity.

The conflict in the Niger Delta continues its slow revival and potential explosiveness, destabilizing the lives of the Delta population and promoting economic instability as the Nigeria main income earner, oil, is mostly from the zone. Repeated clashes between herdsman nomads and farming communities in the north and middle belt regions and other parts of the country have caused increasing casualties and displacements in those areas and have contributed to continued distrust and instability. These herdsmen skirmishes at a stage were also spreading in all parts of the country. The resurgence of Biafra secessionist represented by (IPOD) and MOSSOB and some perceived national government marginalization claims has reinvigorated the ‘National Question’ and pockets of agitation and calls for restructuring. In the north-west states of Zamfara is also a growing incident of militants and cattle rustlers that have caused havoc in the entire states. Also, there are pockets of tribal, communal and land dispute which threatens peace within the state and local government levels. As a result of the series of these conflicts, the Nigeria military is stationed in more than 30 states of the 36 states of the federation. These are major strain in the country’s resources and have led to a weaker military and an increase in human right abuses.

As a country that was amalgamated in 1914, Nigeria was a fusion of diverse ethnic groups, languages and cultures with divergent outlook and philosophy.

SOCIO-ECONOMIC DRIVERS OF CONFLICT IN NIGERIA

The Nigeria economic situation and oil as a major revenue earner have created a volatile, mono, unsuitable and unsustainable economy. It has cultivated a national and international elite embedded in a rent-seeking system of governance. The ruling elites have fueled corruption and legitimized political settlements which in turn have resulted in a high level of poverty and inequity. This has also created a patronage system. Some commentators have termed it the weaponisation of corruption and poverty. As a result of poor service delivery by our leaders and high level of poverty, leadership and policy choices have been abysmal and poor. These economic issues have resulted in inequality, poverty and lack of access and opportunity to basic services and these have continued to drive grievances across the country and continue to hold back development for the majority of the citizenry. The situation in the Niger Delta has resulted in low oil prices, foreign exchange shortages, disruptions in oil production, poor public sector management, power shortages, insecurity and a low capital budget execution rate. These have resulted in conflicts.

The lack of distribution of Nigeria’s wealth means that inequality, poverty and lack of access to basic services fuel grievances across the country and hold back development. Economic differences among the regions, groups in Nigeria also contribute to conflicts. Nigeria has been witnessing a steady decline among the middle class with a dwindling per capita income. Economic inclusion has been especially limiting, with little generation of wage employment and a very high rate of unemployment and underemployment and a huge unaccounted informal sector. Nigeria has huge infrastructural deficits in power, roads and rail networks. In all major economic indexes that country is witnessing a major decline with the highest number of children out of school to the infant ad mortality rate in the world. We are tops in all indexes of under development.

A look at the major drivers of conflict in Nigeria appears economical with limited opportunity, poor governance and management and lack of basic amenities. Her leadership has mismanaged the country’s resources and has failed in lifting a substantial demography from poverty and inequality. These conflicts are perpetuated by other forces that see the youth and the vulnerable as an available tool to use in initiating and escalating the conflicts.

SOCIO-CULTURAL DRIVERS OF CONFLICT, INSTABILITY, AND RESILIENCE

Nigeria is one of the most diversified countries in the world in terms of cultural and social diversity. Nigeria’s large and heterogeneous population, ethnic, religious, regional, linguistic and other identities mark the fault-lines along which political claims, conflagration and violent conflicts are made and perpetuated by the elite among a willing citizenry.

Nigeria is home to 250 ethnic groups, and more than 500 different languages and dialects (the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 2017). The three largest ethnic groups are the Hausa and Fulani in the far north; the Yoruba in the southwest; and the Igbo in the southeast. Ethnic identity is strong. Social construction that is subject to change and political manipulation, especially during elections and religious and any other times the leaders want to cause disunity and conflict among the citizenry.

The amalgamation of the two independent and slightly different regions created a tension at the beginning of the country today known as Nigeria. These tension and divisions are characterized by different ethnic, religious, cultural and language differences. The management and mismanagement of these divergence and conflicting interests and identity have contributed to the instability and distrust within the country. This has fostered deep feelings of grievance, distrust, and animosity, especially when populations believe that they are being purposively excluded from the benefits that others are receiving. At the root of most of the conflict in Nigeria is this feeling of marginalization. The sectional groups and agitation like Biafra group, the problem in Niger Delta and Boko Haram constitute by mostly people from Kanuri shows signs of people feeling marginalized.

It has also happened at the state level, as competition for resources and privileges in Nigeria’s oil political-economy has shown a violent winner-takes-all political system, uneven development and marginalization of large sections of the population.

POLITICAL DRIVERS OF CONFLICT, INSTABILITY, AND RESILIENCE

Political representation and configuration have been one of the major drivers of conflict in Nigeria. Nigeria’s diversity is frequently exploited by politicians who use chauvinistic appeals based on ethnicity, religion, and regionalism to shore up electoral support and image. This political tool is always a potential for high and low-intensity figures as some of the politicians deploy conflict as an instrument of political leverage. Some of the leaders also have a group of thugs which they are ready to deploy to cause harm and conflict within the political groups and the population. Previous elections in 1999, 2003, and 2007, 2011 were also characterized by sectional tensions and violence which led to the death of many citizens. In addition, Nigeria political history is always characterized by a high level of conflict and tension. Nigerian political parties are legally required to have nationally representative memberships and are banned from making direct sectional appeals although some of the politicians flout this. There are some legal and political instruments to manage the complex nature of Nigeria through political representation and appointments i.e. federal character commission and other representatives. These ensure inclusivity among the different ethnic and divergent groups. Also, the idea of Indigeneship, one of the legal instruments designed to manage Nigeria’s ethnic diversity, has instead become a source of tension and conflict. Political corruption has also been a recurrent motivation for conflict as well as a key reason for the Nigerian government’s frequently inadequate responses to violent and conflict outbreaks. The Nigeria political elites operate on winner takes all and suppression of the opposition. This has made election and electioneering process a do or die affair. Nigeria’s diversity is frequently exploited by politicians who use chauvinistic appeals based on ethnicity, religion, and regionalism to shore up electoral support and perpetuate conflicts and disunity. Nigeria needs electoral candidates that will govern in favour of its co-ethnics and co-religionists. Yet other innovative governance measures such as “zoning” have been successful in alleviating some of the southern secessionist pressures that had festered under decades of military rule, although it also comes with the negative influence among which that the. Political corruption has also been a recurrent motivation for conflict as well as a key reason for the Nigerian government’s frequently inadequate responses to violent outbreaks.

ENVIRONMENTAL DRIVERS OF CONFLICT

Environmental issues seem to be one of the most pressing issues promoting conflict, resilience and instability in the Nigerian Niger Delta, the middle belt and other parts of the country. The threat of pollution in the Niger Delta, the climate change issue and others have been the main drivers of conflict and instability in the country Nigeria. Also, the struggles over increasingly scarce land and water threaten peace and stability in many states of Nigeria and lake chard region. The severe food crisis in Nigeria’s northeast continues in 2018 due to Boko Haram and the increasing instability in the middle belt will increase the issue of food insecurity in Nigeria. These emergency and famine conditions are largely due to the violent northeast conflict and middle belt conflict and farmer herdsman clash across the country. Climate change has already led to drought and desertification and is putting pressure on both the pastures and farmers and gully erosion in the south east. These have also increased an already existing poverty in Nigeria that it is predicted that the country may be the poverty capital of the world. Apart from Climate change and pollution, we also have other environmental challenges in other parts of the country that also trigger conflict.

MAJOR CONFLICTS PLAYING OUT CURRENTLY IN NIGERIA

BOKO HARAM

Boko Haram has been causing both high and low-intensity conflict in the North East of Nigeria and other parts of Niger and Cameroon. However, it appears that the group has acquired some foreign sponsors and collaborators, Boko Haram and the broader conflict it has generated, continue to top the list of the Nigerian government’s urgent priorities. The estimated number of Boko Haram members ranges from 5,000 to 20,000, Also with an active and passive cell scattered throughout North East, Cameroon, Niger, Chad and some part of North Central.

The Boko Haram crisis has also been fueled by the confluence of the national issue of corruption and the dramatic poverty and inequality that persists in Northern Nigeria and the North East in particular. It is also a dispute between the Hausa/Fulani and the Kanuri. The region has the worst cases of HDI, infant and maternal mortality, out of school children and other forms of poverty and inequality. With all these, it appears it is a fertile ground for any form of insurgency and extremism. The governance at both the national and subnational levels has been abysmal or inadequate.

Boko Haram has retained its local character while expanding its zones of operations to neighboring countries, and since 2015 pledging allegiance to Islamic State. The group is currently split into two main factions: one headed by Abubakar Shekau, who took over at the death of Yusuf, and a breakaway faction led by Yusuf’s son, Abu Musab al Barnawi, who is officially recognized by Islamic State as ISWAP leader. Despite a connection to the global jihadi movement, Boko Haram remains grounded in the Nigerian context, where the vast majority of its operations have been conducted.

Boko Haram’s espousal of a specifically ‘Salafi-jihadi’ outlook has been a more immediate driver of the group’s violent approach. The frequently coercive responses of the Nigerian government to the Boko Haram insurgency have also been one of the driving factors of the conflict

Even in 2018, after losing much of the territory it once controlled, the head of United States Special Operations Command, Maj. Gen. Marcus Hicks, described Boko Haram as the most lethal terrorist group in the world. No enterprise or institution, public or private, religious or secular, national or local, has been spared by Boko Haram and the North East. Its extreme violence mirrors the tactics of al Qaeda and Islamic State, while its use of coercion and kidnappings resembles warlord-dominated movements like Uganda’s Lord’s Resistance Army and Sierra Leone’s Revolutionary United Front. Boko Haram is inextricably linked to the history and local context of the Lake Chad basin. The society that gave rise to Boko Haram – and subsequently endured the vast majority of its predations – has a long and illustrious history. The Kanuri-led Kanem-Borno Empire held sway around Lake Chad for over a millennium (700-1900CE) although the Boko Haram sect has grown beyond the society and surrounding environment.

As a result of the Boko Haram conflict, the vacuum of state authority in the areas under the most severe threat from Boko Haram also meant that various criminal groups have seen the chaos as an opportunity for profit both official and unofficially. Before the 2015 general elections, Boko Haram controlled a substantial part of Borno State and Yobe state and was creating havoc in the North East and the group could be felt in Abuja the nation’s capital and potential expansion in other parts of the country. From every indication it appears the country still have a long way in tackling this intractable war faire

NIGER DELTA CONFLICT

Niger Delta is a region in Nigeria where most of her hydrocarbon resources are located. Niger Delta is characterized by the paradox of vast resource wealth, widespread poverty, marginalization and distributional injustices. The Nigerian state has responded to the conflicts with a range of actions which has in most part exacerbated the conflict. Unfortunately, the topography of Niger Delta has made it impossible for the military and security agencies to successfully apply force in reducing the conflict in the area. Apart from poverty and lack of economic inclusiveness, space and opportunity, the environmental issues and pollution have also played a major role in triggering conflict because of the effect in livelihood, social and human right of the host communities in Niger Delta generally. This is the case with Ogoni area in Rivers state and other extractive host communities. Militancy, conflict risk and lethal violence continued to increase and have reduced the country’s output and income from oil. Oil spills and gas flaring continue to drastically degrade the environment, increasing impoverishment, joblessness and health problems. Responses to oil spills have been ‘marked by corruption, lack of effective communication, power struggles, and an almost total failure to adequately remedy oil spills. In addition, there are military conspirators with the local cartel that have encouraged oil spill and theft. Some actually accuse the military as enablers in this conflict. Weak governance of the oil companies has fostered and encourage corporate practices that are drivers of the conflict.

The collusion between state authorities, security services, criminal networks and actors within the oil industry run in parallel with – and are enabled by – official structures and negligence by the government. The conflict has pitted the government and oil companies against an array of resistance and armed groups and the host communities. These have hindered the productivity of crude from these areas. Host communities are always on the edge because of little or no collaboration with the host communities.

The national and subnational governments have not done enough or by their actions have made the Niger Delta environment volatile and a fertile ground for low and high intensive conflict. The rampant issue of corruption and lack of governance have made the Niger Delta social economic tension affect the environment and community life. For peace and to make the environment conducive for the community and the oil companies, the different stakeholders must work towards establishing a mutually beneficial relationship.

MIDDLE-BELT CONFLICT

The middle belt of Nigeria made up of predominately the minor ethnic groups, Plateau, Benue, Kwara, Kogi, Niger, Nasarawa and FCT have continually been witnessing some security challenges and conflicts that include ethnic tension, Farmer herdsman clash and identity crisis. The farmer herdsman crisis is rapidly expanding to other parts of the country. These have all contributed in ensuring that the middle belt is mostly unsuitable and conflict-prone. Repeated clashes between nomadic pastoralist /herdsman and farming communities are one of the most pressing axes of conflict in Nigeria. This is because it is spreading everywhere in the country. These clashes are turning out to be the most visible conflict there is, also supported by the cattle rustlers and thieves.

Climate change has contributed to the massive migration of herdsmen to the middle belt and southern regions of Nigeria. The change in climate such as depletion in the ozone layer has led to heat waves, dryness of the rivers and lack of pasture for cattle to graze amongst others. This has made life uncomfortable for the citizenry and animals. This has resulted in the migration to safer areas and an increase in Internal Displace Area, especially the most affected area the Benue, Taraba and Plateau. These conflicts have also been escalated by the establishment of anti-grazing laws by some state governments. The rampaging pastoralist seems to be more rampant and a threat to the survival of the country more than the Boko Haram. This may be because of the migration of the pastoralist from the whole of West Africa and the war in Libya that have made the availability and accessibility of small arms common. This is also expanded because of the reactions of the host farmers to defend their farmland and communities.

The politicization of religious and ethnic difference has also been a contributing factor to the conflict. Pervasive insecurity, crime, and impunity in insufficiently policed rural areas have been a further source of conflict between farmers and pastoralists.

Tribalism, Resource Control, Religion, Land and Trade are other contributing factors to the conflict. Two states of Benue and Taraba have enacted Anti-grazing laws that make grazing in open field or farm a punishable offence. These have rather worsened the conflict instead of minimizing it.

Also, there have been some age long conflicts with the ethnic groups in the middle belt region especially on identity crisis, ethnic rivalry, land rights and other conflicts that have lasted years.

MAJOR COMMUNAL CONFLICTS IN NIGERIA

Nigeria has also witnessed series of religious, ethnic and community crisis. The crisis is always a crisis of intolerance, domination, identity and land boundaries of the community. The basis of citizenship rights, social, economic and political progress has contributed to low intensive and high intensive conflicts. The history of conflicts in Nigeria is numerous to mention and covers several years. Some of these conflicts include;

The Kasuwar Magani conflict in Kaduna State, in 1980,
The Maitatsine Uprising, Kano City, in December 1980;
The Ife-Modakeke conflicts, in April 1981;
The Maitasine Uprisings of Kano, Kaduna and Maiduguri, in October 1982;
The Maitatsine Uprising, Yola, February 1984;
The Matitasine Uprising, Gombe, April 1985:
The conflicts in Numan and neighbouring areas of Adamawa State, in 1986-88;
The conflicts in Kafanchan, Kaduna, Zaria and other parts of Kaduna State, in March 1987;
The conflicts at Wukari, Takum and other parts of Taraba and Benue states, in 1990-1992; 1999-2002;
The conflict in Tafawa Balewa and other parts of Bauchi State, in 1991, and 2000-2001;
The conflict in Zangon Kataf and other parts of Kaduna State, in February and May 1992;
The conflicts in Obi and Toto LGAs and neighbouring areas of Nasarawa State, in 1995-1999;
The conflict in the Andoni and Ogoni areas of Rivers State, in 1993-94;
The conflict in Karim Lamido LGA. Taraba State, in 1996-1997;
The conflict in the Ogoni and Okrika areas of Rivers State in 1994-1996;
The conflicts in Nembe and Kalabari areas of Bayelsa State, in 1996-1999;
The conflict in the Bassambiri and Ogbolomabiri areas of Bayelsa State, in the 1990s;
The conflict in the Okpoma Brass areas of Bayelsa State in the 1990s;
The conflict in the Sangama, Soku and Oluasiri areas of Rivers and Bayelsa States in 1993-2001;
The conflict in the Burutu LGA, of Delta State in 2000-2001;
The conflicts in Warri and its environs, 1997-2002;
The conflicts in the Okitipupa area of Ondo State in 1998-2000;
The conflict in Mushin, Ajegunle, Ketu and Agege and other parts of Lagos State, 1999-2000;
The conflicts in Kano State in 1999-2000;
The conflicts in the Kaduna Metropolis, in 2000;
The conflicts in the Jos Metropolis and environs, in 2001-2002;
The conflict in the Quan-Pan LGA of Plateau State, and the Azara District of Awe LGA of Nasarawa State, in 2001;
The conflicts in Awe LGA and other areas of Nasarawa State in 2001- 2002;
The conflict in Ife and Modakeke areas of Osun State, in 2000-2001.
The conflict on the Mambila Plateau in 2001-2002;
The conflict in Gombe State in September 2000;
The conflict in Shagamu and other parts of Ogun State in 1999-2000;
The conflict in Aguleri and Umuleri areas of Anambra State in 2000;
The conflict in Gwantu, Kaduna, in 2001.

There were, of course, many other cases of violent communal conflicts which did not get prominent treatment in the media, or, by the government and opinion leaders and politicians. The violent clashes between Fulani, other nomads, Hausa and other peasant farmers in the Sahelian states of Kebbi, Sokoto, Katsina, Kano, Jigawa, Yobe, Borno, Bauchi, Gombe and in the other central Nigerian states are still on the increase. There is always a conflict rivalry. North versus the South; Christians versus Muslims: Hausa-Fulani versus Middle Belt minorities; and Hausa-Fulani versus the rest.

RECOMMENDATION

There is an urgent need to address the issues of conflict and insecurity in Nigeria. Some of the solutions are political, psychological, judicial and policy initiatives to reduce and address the issues of conflict and security.

Political will to address the issues by taking up some controversial issues that will ensure peace and stability in the country.
The need for restructuring to enable state and community policing. This involves the devolution of federal policing powers and decentralization to ensure citizen participation.
The need to look at the security architecture and redesign it to meet the dynamic realities of Nigeria.
The need for education and awareness to the populace to understand importance of national unity and coherence.
The need for the government to create the enabling environment for a viable economic development and economic diversification that will ensure improvement in human development. A sizable number of the conflicts is triggered by lack of economic opportunities and inclusiveness.
The need to reduce employment and create opportunity that will take care of the demography of the youths and other vulnerable section that the society that serves as breathing group for the group mostly used in conflict.
The government should create some deliberate policies, interventions and programs that will promote national unity and cohesion.
The government and security agencies should apprehend perpetuators of violence and killing and make sure they face the law. Most perpetuators continue the act with impunity because they have not been brought to book.
They should be fairness and justice in government and society dealings so accommodate everybody and reduce the feeling of marginalization and lack of inclusiveness fueling both high and low intensive conflicts.
The community leaders and influencers taking a leading role and ensuring the maintenance of peace in the community. They should be a sense of participation, responsibility and ownership to ensure the maintenance of peace and other.
The government and security architecture should ensure maintenance of law and order and the control and reduction of light weapons and arms.

CONCLUSION

Conflicts, instability and resilience have been reoccurring in the Nigeria state because of the economic situation, the multi ethnic, multi- religious, multicultural and lack of knowledge and education among the various constitutes of the country. Also the composition of the security architecture and operational issues affecting the Nigeria security organization has not helped in tackling the numerous high and low intensity conflicts affecting the country. In addition, the lack of political will to identify perpetrators and allow the full cause of justice and the rule of law has encouraged the resilience of conflicts in the country. For a peace and equitable society, the country should make a deliberate policy to ensure peace and stability.

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